A research report of Analysis and prediction of China’s import-and-export situation April~December 2007 was released by Center for Forecasting Science, CAS, recently. The report predicted China’s total import-and-export trade volume, Sino-U.S. and Sino-Europe trade volume, and other main commodity trade volume April through December 2007 based on the analysis of the economy trend both domestically and internationally and the statistics data from China Customs Office up to the end of March 2007. Below are seven key outcomes:
1. In 2007, the gap of increase speed between import and export will decrease, trade surplus will continue to increase. It is estimated that in 2007 export volume will reach approximately 1, 199.61 billion $, with an increase about 23.7% compared to the same period last year; import volume will reach about USD 945.58 billion with an increase about 19.5% compared to the same period last year. Growth of trade surplus will slow down to about USD 254.03 billion, with an increase about 42.8% compared to the same period last year.
2. In 2007, Sino-US trade surplus will continue to be conspicuous. It is estimated that in 2007 the export from China to America will be about USD 263.57 billion with an increase about 29.8% compared to the same period last year; the import from America to China will about USD70.99 billion with an increase about 18.9% compared to the same period last year. The annual trade gap will be about USD178.22 billion with an increase about 23.5% compared to the same period last year.
3. In 2007, the growth of Sino-European trade surplus will increase significantly. It is estimated that in 2007 the export from China to EU will be about USD239.28 billion with an increase about 33.1% compared to the same period last year; the import from EU to China is about USD110.6 billion with an increase about 22% compared to the same period last year. The annual trade gap will be about USD128.68 billion with an increase about 44.4% compared to the same period last year.
4. In 2007, the growth of China’s export in clothing, textile and shoes will reveal a tendency of a gradual decrease. It is estimated that in 2007 the total volume of clothing export will be about USD107.91 billion with an increase about 15.8% compared to the same period last year; the export volume textile is about USD 55.27 billion with an increase about 13.3% compared to the same period last year; the export volume of shoes is about USD24.85 billion with an increase about 13.9% compared to the same period last year.
