US Cotton Production & Mill Use in Asia Projected
Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee Date: 2007-09-06
Production in Asia is expected to continue to increase in 2007/08 to a record of 14.9 million tons, which would represent 59% of world production.
Projected area and yield increases in India and Pakistan explain most of the forecast production increase in Asia. Production in the rest of the world is expected to decline for the third consecutive season to 10.5 million tons. As a result, world cotton production is forecast slightly down at 25.4 million tons in 2007/08.
Asian cotton mill use is also expected to continue to increase in 2007/08 to a record of 20.3 million tons, which would represent 75% of world cotton mill use. Most of the projected 3% increase in global mill use will be once again driven by China (Mainland).
World cotton trade is expected to rebound by 8% to 8.9 million tons in 2007/08 due to larger Chinese imports, forecast at 3.4 million tons. Exports by the United States, India and Brazil are projected to increase in 2007/08. However, exports by Uzbekistan, the African Franc Zone and Australia are expected to decline.
The Secretariat, using the ICAC Price Model 2007, forecasts a season-average Cotlook A Index of 68 cents per pound in 2007/08, 9 cents higher than in 2006/07. This projected price increase is the result of an expected significant decrease in the stocks-to-mill use ratio in the World-less-China (Mainland) in 2007/08.
