Huge decline in world cotton mill use forecast in 2008/09
Source: International Cotton Advisory Committee Date: 2009-02-04
World cotton mill use is forecast at 24.5 million tons in 2008/09, down 7% from 2007/08. One of the most significant developments in 2008/09 is the expected 10% reduction in Chinese cotton mill use, to 9.8 million tons.
China (Mainland) is the largest cotton consumer, accounting for around 40% of world cotton mill use. Cotton mill use is also projected down in India and Pakistan, the second and third largest cotton consumers.
As a result of the decline in world cotton mill use, world trade is expected to fall by 17% in 2008/09, to 6.9 million tons. This would be the lowest level in six seasons. In particular, Chinese imports are projected at 1.5 million tons in 2008/09, down by 1 million tons from last season. Exporters are being forced to carry larger stocks than desired, putting pressure on world cotton prices.
The ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts the 2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index at 68 cents per pound, down by 7% from last season. However, the Secretariat believes that the 2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index may be in the lower half of the 95% confidence interval, between 61 and 68 cents per pound.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology.
China (Mainland) is the largest cotton consumer, accounting for around 40% of world cotton mill use. Cotton mill use is also projected down in India and Pakistan, the second and third largest cotton consumers.
As a result of the decline in world cotton mill use, world trade is expected to fall by 17% in 2008/09, to 6.9 million tons. This would be the lowest level in six seasons. In particular, Chinese imports are projected at 1.5 million tons in 2008/09, down by 1 million tons from last season. Exporters are being forced to carry larger stocks than desired, putting pressure on world cotton prices.
The ICAC Price Model 2007 forecasts the 2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index at 68 cents per pound, down by 7% from last season. However, the Secretariat believes that the 2008/09 season-average Cotlook A Index may be in the lower half of the 95% confidence interval, between 61 and 68 cents per pound.
The International Cotton Advisory Committee is an association of governments of cotton producing and consuming countries. The Secretariat of the Committee publishes information related to world cotton production, supply, demand and prices, and provides technical information on cotton production technology.
