In year 2010, the developing countried surpassed the developed countries in the output growth. IMF foresees an optimistic 2010 in the global GDP growth and 4.8% rising seems to be reasonable. Of which, developed countries rise 2.7%, developing countries 7.1%. For 2011, the growth might be moderate at 4.2% (2.2% and 6.4% for developed and developing countries respectively).
The recovery of world trade will exceed the output growth. The quick growth of developing coutries will be the major drive power. In the late half of 2010, the world export rose 26% from the same period last year. More than half attribute to the developing countries. The US export reached its summit at March, then turned to stable. The EU countries export grew in Spring but turned to drop in Summer. Part of the reason lied in the unclear economic future of some countries. The data of Japan and China revealed that the export decreased in August but rose again in September.
Nevertheless, the recent trade growth turned to slow because of the weak demand from developed countries. Other reason include the low base number in last year.
