Cotton traded in a very narrow range most of the day as we waited for the Federal Reserve announcement to give prices some direction. Expectations were met with a 50 basis point cut in the Fed funds rate and the discount rate.
This immediately sent stocks higher after trading sideways to lower most of the day. However, after more than a 200 point turn around, the market closed lower on the day with some late profit taking.
We are starting to form a strong resistance line in the Dow above 12,500 as we have failed to close above this level since the sell off last week. Cotton traded on light volume most of the day with 25,000 futures and 9,000 options.
Cotton did manage to close near the highs as soybeans were up as well, but corn and wheat closed lower. The weak close in the stock market could have a negative effect on the foreign markets overnight and may add pressure to commodity prices.
However, the export sales report should be strong tomorrow, but the shipments will probably remain average as we are expecting sales between 400-500k and shipments between 150-250k.
The big news continues to be the bad weather in China which is weighing on the power grid and has many mills projected to be off line for extended periods of time. Cert stocks rose back above 500k today with 50k awaiting review and open interest rose slightly back near 270,000 contracts.
RSI is near 50 and prices are holding the low at the 50-day moving average near 67.00 as this trade channel should hold up short term.
The grains and other commodities are finding some strength along with a weaker dollar. U.S. stocks tried to rally on the positive news reported by the Fed, but we are still in a bear market as Asia and Europe have also been struggling to rebound after last weeks correction.
It appears the housing market slowdown and the fears of recession will be enough to keep a lid on the markets short term.
