Cotton Imports Expand; Forecast Understated?
Source: globecotnews Date: 2008-06-17
According to Chinese Customs, China imported 240,200 tons of cotton in May, down 8.8% from the previous month but up 19.3% from a year ago. Through the first ten months of the marketing year, cumulative cotton imports stand at 2.1 million tons, or almost 9.6 million bales (480 lbs), up 17.0% from the corresponding period last marketing year
The cumulative pace of imports suggests Chinese demand for foreign cottons this year may climb to match or even surpass the USDA’s most recent forecast of 12.0 million bales. Through the first ten months of the marketing year, cumulative arrivals stand at 9.6 million bales, or 79.9% of the USDA’s latest 2007/08 forecast. This percentage is well above the average 71.4% of the yearly total typically imported by each May over the last seven years since China joined the WTO, suggesting 2007/08 imports may even surpass the current 12.0 million-bale target. In fact, expressed as a percentage of total bales imported, in only two years out of the last six was the cumulative pace of imports more than the 79.9% received so far this year, adding further optimism that shipments may reach or even exceed the forecasted target.
